LAHORE - The Pakistan car industry grew by 23% to 178,753 units YoY in FY12 where PSMC contributed 60% followed by INDUS contributing 29% to the total industry sales. The increase can be attributed primarily to 1) good agricultural income 2) deferred sales due to reduction in Sales Tax and 3) Yellow cab scheme.

In Jun12,car sales stood at 19,140 units, depicting an exceptional increase of 158% from 7,419 units sold in Jun11 mainly because of the low base effect as the government was expected to reduce Sales Tax by 1% in Jun11.

PSMC had a phenomenal FY12 as it witnessed a 40% YoY jump in its sales figures contributing more than 50% to the industry’s total sales pie. This growth in units from 79943k to 112157k units was mainly triggered by Punjab Government Yellow cab scheme where PSMC was the prime beneficiary.

INDU also saw its sales units go up to 54477 units from 50015k (9% up in FY12) on the back of good agricultural growth and subsequently good rural income.

Segment wise YoY analysis makes Corolla(+58%), Cultus(+ 20%) and Mehran(+ 46%) the star performers in 1300cc, 1000cc and 800cc respectively. We believe Corolla on the back of agricultural income and Cultus and Mehran as substitutes to Alto and Cuore will continue to capture the customer interest.

Auto sales in June-2012 clocked in at 19.2k units, which is an increase of 15%MoM. This improvement in sales is most likely due to anticipated price hikes by the manufacturers owing to conversion to Euro II compliance and steep depreciation of Rupee. On a YoY watch, auto sales soared by 155%.

However, this growth is misleading as sales last year in June abnormally declined owing to expectation of price cuts. As a result, auto sales reached 179k units (up 22%YoY) in FY12 vs. our expectation of 175k units. In expectation of stiff competition from imports, we expect growth to slowdown to 6% in FY13. We presently have a ‘Market-Weight’ stance on the sector, with Indus Motor (INDU) as our preferred play.

FY12 culminated with a growth of 22%YoY, with sales touching 179k units. The improvement in demand was largely led by the subsidized Yellow Cab scheme offered by the Punjab government. We expect the growth to slow down to 6% in FY13 (sales likely to reach 190k units) owing to a lower amount allocated to the cab scheme this year and stiff competition from imports.

The announcement of a new long term auto policy (termed as AIDP-2) will be pivotal for the sector going forward.

Significantly lower duties on CBU imports in the policy can substantially hurt the local manufacturers. We retain our outlook on the sector at ‘Market-Weight’, with INDU as our preferred play. The stock trades at an FY13 PE of 5.8x, and offers a dividend yield of 7.4%.